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Here is how to play the altcoin game - for newbies & champs
I have been here for many previous altcoin seasons (2013,2017 etc) and wanted to share knowedle. It's a LOOONG article. The evaluation of altcoins (i.e not Bitcoin) is one of the most difficult and profitable exercises. Here I will outline my methodology and thinking but we have to take some things as a given. The first is that the whole market is going up or down with forces that we can't predict or control. Bitcoin is correlated with economic environments, money supply increases, safe havens such as Gold, hype and country regulations. This is an impossible mix to analyze and almost everyone fails at it. That's why you see people valuing Bitcoin from $100 to $500k frequently. Although I am bullish on the prospects of Bitcoin and decentralization and smart contract platforms, this is not the game I will be describing. I am talking about a game where you try to maximize your BTC holdings by investing in altcoins. We win this game even if we are at a loss in fiat currency value. To put it another way:
If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.
Bitcoin is the big boy
How the market works is not easily identifiable if you haven't graduated from the 2017 crypto university. When there is a bull market everything seems amazingly profitable and things keep going up outgrowing Bitcoin by orders of magnitude and you are a genius. The problem with this is that it only works while Bitcoin is going up a little bit or trades sideways. When it decides to move big then altcoins lose value both on the way up and on the way down. The second part is obvious and proven since all altcoins from 2017 are at a fraction of their BTC value (usually in the range of 80% or more down). Also, when BTC is making a big move upwards everyone exits altcoins to ride the wave. It is possible that the altcoin market behaves as an inversed leveraged ETF with leakage where in a certain period while Bitcoin starts at 10k and ends at 10k for example, altcoins have lost a lot of value because of the above things happening.
We are doing it anyway champ!
OK so we understand the risks and just wanna gambol with our money right? I get it. Why do that? Because finding the ideal scenario and period can be extremely profitable. In 2017 several altcoins went up 40x more than BTC. But again, if you don't chose wisely many of them have gone back to zero (the author has first hand experience in this!), they have been delisted and nobody remembers them. The actual mentality to have is very important and resembles poker and other speculative games: A certain altcoin can go up in value indefinitely but can only lose it's starting investment. Think about it. You either lose 1 metric or gain many many more. Now that sounds amazing but firstly as we said we have the goal to outperform our benchmark (BTC) and secondly that going up in value a lot means that the probability is quite low. There is this notion of Expected Value (EV) that poker players apply in these kind of situations and it goes like that. If you think that a certain coin has a probability let's say 10% to go up 10X and 90% probability it goes to zero it's an even bet. If you think that probability is 11% then it's a good bet, a profitable bet and you should take it. You get the point right? It's not that it can only go 10X or 0X, there is a whole range of probability outcomes that are too mathematical to explain here and it doesn't help so much because nobody can do such analysis with altcoins. See below on how we can approximate it.
How to evaluate altcoins
A range of different things to take into account outlined below will form our decision making. Not a single one of them should dictate 100% of our strategy.
It's all about market cap. Repeat after me. The price of a coin doesn't mean anything. Say it 10 times until you believe it. I can't remember how many times I had conversations with people that were comparing coins using their coin price instead of their market cap. To make this easy to get.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law
This is done usually in the stock world and it means that each company has some fundamental value that includes it's assets, customers, growth prospects, sector prospects and leadership competence but mostly centered in financial measures such as P/E ratios etc. Valuation is a proper economic discipline by itself taught in universities. OK, now throw everything out of the window!. This kind of analysis is impossible in vague concepts and innovations that are currently cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was frequently priced at the fictional price of gas when all financial systems on earth run on the platform after decades (a bit of exaggeration here). No project is currently profitable enough to justify a valuation multiple that is usually equal to P/E in the thousands or more. As such we need to take other things into account. What I do is included in the list below:
Check Github. You need to make sure there is active development for the platform and it's a very bad sign if the project is either keeping the code closed source or even worse there is simply no development. No projects are "complete".
Check Website. If the website is written in bad English the Chinese google translate type it means that they are not serious enough to produce an unbreakable decentralized project. If you can't write English you can't change the world, period. That's a deal breaker.
Check Team's Linkedin. Numerous projects have either fake Linkedin accounts or the team is comprised mainly by unexperienced employees that are even shown to be working in other companies currently.
Check backers. Projects that have Binance, Coinbase or Silicon Valley VC funds backing them are way more legit but way more overpriced too!
One of my favorite ways to value altcoins that is based on the same principle in the stock market is to look at peers and decide what is the maximum cap it can grow to. As an example you take a second layer Ethereum solution that has an ICO and you want to decide if you will enter or not. You can take a look at other coins that are in the same business and compare their market caps. Thinking that your coin will outperform by a lot the top coins currently is overly optimistic so I usually take a lower valuation as a target price. If the initial offering is directly implying a valuation that is more than that then there is no room to grow according to my analysis and I skip it. Many times this has proven me wrong because it's a game theory problem where if many people think irrationally in a market it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But since there is opportunity cost involved, in the long run, getting in initial offerings that have a lot of room to grow will pay off as a strategy.
In 2017 the sexiest sector was platforms and then coins including privacy ones. Platforms are obviously still a highly rated sector because everything is being built on them, but privacy is not as hot as it used to be. In 2018 DEXes were all they hype but still people are massively using centralized exchanges. In 2020 Defi is the hottest sector and it includes platforms, oracles and Defi projects. What I am saying is that a project gets extra points if it's a Defi one in 2020 and minus points if it's a payment system that will conquer the world as it was in 2017 because that's old news. This is closely related to the next section.
Needless to say that the crypto market is a worse FOMO type of inexperienced trigger happy yolo investors , much worse than the Robinhood crowd that drove a bankrupt company's stock 1200% after they declared bankruptcy. The result is that there are numerous projects that are basically either vaporware or just so overhyped that their valuation has no connection to reality. Should we avoid those kind of projects? No and I will explain why. There are many very good technically projects that had zero hype potential due to incompetent marketing departments that made them tank. An example (without shilling because I sold out a while back) is Quantum Resistant Ledger. This project has amazing quantum resistant blockchain, the only one running now, has a platform that people can build tokens and messaging systems and other magnificent stuff. Just check how they fared up to now and you will get the point. A project *needs* to have a hype factor because you cannot judge it as normal stocks that you can do value investing like Warren Buffet does where a company will inevitable post sales and profitability numbers and investors will get dividends. Actually the last sentence is the most important: No dividends. Even projects that give you tokens or coins as dividends are not real dividends because if the coin tanks the value of the dividend tanks. This is NOT the case with company stocks where you get dollars even if the company stock tanks. All that being said, I would advice against betting on projects that have a lot of hype but little substance (but that should be obvious!).
How to construct your portfolio
My strategy and philosophy in investing is that risk should be proportional to investment capital. That means that if you are investing 100K in the crypto market your portfolio should be very different than someone investing 1K because 10% annual gains are nothing in the latter while they are very significant in the former. Starting from this principle each individual needs to construct a portfolio according to how much risk he wants to take. I will emphasize two important concepts that play well with what I said. In the first instance of a big portfolio you should concentrate on this mantra: "Diversification is the only free meal in finance". In the case of a small portfolio then this mantra is more important: "Concentrate to create wealth, diversify to maintain wealth". Usually in a big portfolio you would want to hold some big coins such as BTC and ETH to weather the ups and downs explained in previous paragraphs while generating profits and keep progressively smaller parts of your portfolio for riskier investments. Maybe 50% of this portfolio could be big caps and 10% very risky initial offerings. Adapting risk progressively to smaller portfolios makes sense but I think it would be irrational to keep more than 30% of a portfolio no matter what tied to one coin due to the very high risk of bankruptcy.
The altseason is supposedly coming every 3 months. Truth is that nobody can predict it but altcoins can be profitable no matter what. Forget about maximalists who are stuck in their dogmas. Altcoins deliver different value propositions and it makes sense because we are very far from a situation where some project offers everything like Amazon and we wouldn't even want that in the first place since we are talking about decentralization and not a winner takes all and becomes a monster kind of scenario! Some last minute advice:
Stay out of paid telegram/discord pump groups. They are deadly for your wallet.
Avoid jumping on overhyped coins that have pumped massively during the last days without any very important news.
Don't keep coins in obscure exchanges for too long or you will get burned with certainty.
Stop thinking that your coin will 1000x and overtake Bitcoin!
P.S If you find value in reading this and want more weekly consider subscribing to my newsletterhere
Donating, Absconding With Funds, System Down…What Cryptocurrency Exchanges Did During The COVID-19 Outbreak?
https://preview.redd.it/23z5fzlwdeo41.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a2dfb216f64581c995684f6dfc9dd56b5d406cea At the beginning of 2020, the new coronavirus pneumonia came unexpectedly, and it is getting even worse. This not only threatens the health and safety of people across the country, but also poses a huge challenge to economic development. In face of such situation, no digital currency exchange can manage alone. When the epidemic broke out, the blockchain industry actively responded to the national call to extend the Spring Festival holiday in a timely manner while working from home. Besides, blockchain companies, including many digital currency exchanges, have donated money and materials to fight the epidemic. Of course, there are also exclusions, some exchanges absconded with funds, some accuse or even attack each other, and some systems were down. Donating The epidemic struck. In this special period, people from all walks of life, in which digital currency exchanges were also included, have spontaneously established rescue teams to raise funds and transport materials to help Wuhan. On January 27, 2020, 58COIN announced that it would donate 15 million medical supplies to help fight the epidemic. That night, the first batch of 70,000 protective masks arrived in Wuhan and Huanggang. On February 17, the second batch of 600,000 protective masks were transported from South Korea to China. On February 20, the third batch of tons of vegetables were sent from Yunnan to Hubei. 58COIN was not only concerned about Hubei, but also cared about its users’ health and safety. On February 21, the platform gave 50,000 KF94 masks to users for free. As of February 26, all masks were delivered to users. In addition to 58COIN, other platforms also contributed to the epidemic. On January 26, the CEO of Binance, CZ stated on Twitter that the global trading platform has promised to provide 10 million Yuan to help people suffering from illness. On January 27, OKEx set up a special fund of 10 million Yuan for epidemic prevention and control, and worker together with the China Charity Federation to support front-line protection work. Following 58COIN and Binance, Huobi Global also established the Huobi Charity Foundation on January 28, setting up a fund of 10 million Yuan, which was mainly used to purchase protective equipment and donate to front-line medical staff. On January 27, ZB (zb.com) announced the establishment of a 10 million anti-epidemic foundation to support the infected area. https://preview.redd.it/3hb37bf8eeo41.jpg?width=634&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=937a355fc1827a8947411a6d653fde92b3ce762c Absconding With Funds On February 17, Fcoin officially released the "FCoin Truth", saying that the biggest problem for FCoin is not the system down, but the incapability of paying off users’ withdrawals with the reserves. It is expected that the scale of non-payment is about 7,000 to 13,000 BTC. https://preview.redd.it/ysz922zceeo41.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0a179707f7d6850377db19129a75aff417d5016 As soon as this announcement came out, the fact that Fcoin absconded with funds was finally revealed. Given the astounding fact of the inability to pay off tens of thousands of bitcoins, stream of investors seek to defend their rights. Since then, all kinds of merger rumors have been denied by the parties. The former alliances with Du Jun, and Li Lin of Huobi Global have become enemies of today. Zhao Changpeng, showed his hindsight by saying that Fcoin was a CX project as early as in 2018. Recently, it was reported that the internal market of echoin project on OKEx had crashed and absconded, and this pneumonia was the actual reason. https://preview.redd.it/5et37h6geeo41.jpg?width=638&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f0be2699431c5664d5a522368ebf2f329a8ec172 "Energy Kingdom" claims to be the most worthwhile blockchain game in the second half of 2019. The EC coin it produced was the token of the partner Echoin Energy Public Chain, which was first listed on OKEx. Now that the game has stopped operating. System Down CZ’s platform also has its share of problem. In the evening of February 19, several users revealed that Binance failed for unknown reasons, and then it announced that the system was undergoing a temporary maintenance. Since then, there have been rumors that Binance’s downtime was caused by hack, resulting in the lose of 20,000 BTC and 1.7 million ETH. It is well known that Binance has suffered multiple outages and has been out of service for 60 hours, and was stolen twice and lost 14,000 bitcoin. Also, Binance was accused of a large-scale leak of user real-name information and fell into the public opinion crisis. Steadfast Enterprising While other platforms are busy harvesting investors’ wealth and accusing each other, 58COIN is concentrating on improving its business and strengthening customer service. During the Spring Festival, 58COIN did not slack off. it launched a series of activities including “forwarding with rewards”, “deposit to share 1 million USDT”, which attracted the active participation of investors. After the holiday, the company arranged all employees to work from home by taking their physical and mental health into consideration, and such arrangement did not affect its business process and customer service at all. All business operations were stable and customer problems were resolved at any time. From February 2 to February 13, in less than two weeks, the volume of holding positions reached new highs for five times, ranking first in the industry. https://preview.redd.it/ayr0eh6peeo41.png?width=450&format=png&auto=webp&s=741b04b0fbbae1f7efe4b6b1abaa88c7b1e02e14 In such a blatant cryptocurrency realm, 58COIN Exchange can settle down, focusing on developing products and striving to control risks, serves users with professional services. Besides, it has been well-received for more than two years since establishment, and has won the first position in market share for two consecutive years. Such a stable, secure and high-quality exchange is worth looking forward to in the future.
Why we shouldn't be asking for regulation and why we need the RIGHT to make bad investments.
I have deleted some of my old accounts but I have been frequenting bitcoin since 2014 and I am rather disappointed with the change over the last year and calls for regulation of crypto. So I thought I should make a reasoned argument as to why regulation is a terrible idea.
1. There aren't THAT many scams
4 out of 5 startups fail crypto or not. Failing is does not equate to scam. Further more sometimes the difference between a scam, just a poorly run startup, slimely business, and a bad idea isn't so clear. I'd guesstimate that at least 95% of crypto projects actually are acting in good faith.
2. Fraudsters don't follow laws anyways
Scammers are often already breaking laws, if they promise they will do X, Y, and Z and they don't they have already broken a contract and are liable to civil suits, and yes even just a promise in a whitepaper can already be considered a contract! Even emails can be considered to be legally binding between two parties in most countries and most freelancers already know this. If a fraudster is going to really scam people they will be one of those projects with an anonymous team or a fake one. And guess what since the government can't stop people from making crypto transactions a scammer from Russia is still going to be taking your ETH regardless of the regulation because they are anonymous!
3. Regulation favors the rich
In America you often have to be an accredited investor to invest in early startups. In other words to invest in a young company that is having an ICO, if the same rules applied to crypto, you would have to be accredited. So what is an accredited investor?
To be an accredited investor, a person must demonstrate an annual income of $200,000, or $300,000 for joint income, for the last two years with expectation of earning the same or higher income. An individual must have earned income above the thresholds either alone or with a spouse over the last three years. The income test cannot be satisfied by showing one year of an individual's income and the next two years of joint income with a spouse. The exception to this rule is when a person is married within the period of conducting a test. A person is also considered an accredited investor if he has a net worth exceeding $1 million, either individually or jointly with his spouse. The SEC also considers a person to be an accredited investor if he is a general partner, executive officer, director or a related combination thereof for the issuer of unregistered securities.
source This means you basically have to be a millionaire to invest in early stages of a startup. So that means 99% of people in this subbreddit could no longer participate in ICOs if the same rules applied. Furthermore the people that will be writing these regulations are going to tend to be older people who have more traditional and conservative investments, so why would someone who is invested in say paypal, want to make it easy for their investment to be made irrelevant? They have disincentive to create good and fair regulations. They lack what Nassim Taleb calls "Skin in The Game" which leads to poor or selfish decisions.
4. No one seems to actually know what "regulation" means
I see people commenting about how they don't like project A and that its a "scam". Truthfully I feel this is often because sometimes it isn't always the best technology or startup that is the best investment so people can get butt hurt over it when they see projects they don't like become successful and then they say "oh I wish there was regulation so this wouldn't become popular." What the fuck are you guys talking about? How do regulate whether or not a shitty technology is favored by people over a good one? Do you really think the government should be deciding what is "good" or "bad" technology? Because if they did Bitcoin would have never been invented in the first place. Also "regulation" isn't some magic thing that will stop bad things or even scams. Because of the nature of decentralization people can very easily be anonymous and setup ICOs.
5. Regulation will be ineffective and will cause brain drain
Like it or not tax/regulation havens will always exist. So companies will tend to move to places with the least regulation, Binance is a good example of that. And since crypto transactions are trustless the actual company can be in Malta even if the token or coin is used primarily in somewhere like the US. Which means that these crypto companies will still be able to reap the benefits without any of the cost of physically being in some country. That's a lot of tax revenue that will be lost because of regulation. This also creates more inequality as it means most of the worlds wealth will end up be more concentrated in tax havens. Not to mention anonymous scammers don't follow regulations anyways.
6. You are telling the government you are too stupid to handle your own money
Why on earth should you or the government or anyone tell me I can't throw $1000 bucks at some startup on the other side of the world? Regulation is only going to add more red tap for small startups, I have some experience with this personally as I work for two blockchain startups. One of these startups I suggested they add an equity function to their utility token, turning it into stock + utility token, as I think that is way more valuable to investors and they will likely be able to raise more money in their ICO. However they have determined that the paperwork alone costs way too much time and money. So these regulations are already hurting both investors and startups. Regulation KILLS innovation. You can't get 1000x return on one investment without taking a 95% loss on 10, in the end it is still worth it and you still win but regulations will make it damn near impossible for regular people to invest in projects in their early stages or from new better startups being created, so you will only be "protected" from insane profits with maybe a slight improvement in your losses. More regulation means less profit, and lets be real, most of you are here and want "regulation" because you want more money but this is the worst way to go about it. If you are too stupid to do basic research and to have diversified your portfolio then you are bad at investing and you shouldn't be playing this game, no amount of regulation will make you a better decision maker. We need the right to make bad investments that fail because that's how investing is done, you tend to make a loss on most investments but the few that profit more than make up for the sum of losses. Just think of the potential of millions of world changing startups that will never be because of red tape. It's like taxing people because they are dumb.
The Solution: Lawsuits
You can still sue people for things that are not explicitly breaking a law, but breaking a contract. The only regulation should be a business license so the government knows who they are, after that its not harm no foul rule. That means that if ICOs or cryptos try to trick people that they can be taken to court and sued to hell so they still are culpable for wrong doing without hindering young startups. Stricter regulations would have made a lot more sense in a pre-internet and pre-crypto world. This is because only people who could make researching and educating themselves a full time job could really understand if a business had a reasonable proposition and model since researching anything pre-internet was way more difficult. However with the democratization of information with the internet and of value with crypto these regulations don't make as much sense because the informational asymmetry has almost entirely disappeared between accredited investors and regular motivated people. The only difference now is the size of the wallet, this is a terrible world to live in where only rich have the options. I highly recommend everyone in crypto read Nassim Talebs "Incerto" collection particularly his latest book "Skin in The Game".
Investing in crypto is more like shareholding than using money. But where do crypto profits come from? Who are the CEOs and majority shareholders?
1 The majority of well-known cryptocurrency founders have criminal records and extreme views, many others are anonymous. They have preyed on retail investors to enrich themselves and encourage retail investors to promote extremist political views. 2 The founder of bitcoin was anonymous. What if that means he was an employee of a rogue regime, or a programmer for a terrorist group, or had a long list of criminal records? He or they would be amassing a fortune based on the fact that they had a head start in acquiring a large amount of cryptocurrency before the public had a chance. 3 A large majority of the cryptocurrency supply is owned by a small number of wallets with no known ownership. They could be a rogue regime, a terrorist group, child traffickers, a cartel, or all the above. In fact, we have quite a lot of evidence that the ‘all the above’ option is correct. 4 Cryptocurrencies do not meet the definition of money, they function more like shareholding in a network that derives revenue and profit from speculation, money laundering, terrorist financing, drug sales, child sex trafficking, ransomware, bribery, and financial fraud on exchanges. 5 The market prices are clearly artificially boosted with unbacked Tether (a token that is alleged to be backed by US dollars but is unaudited), fake volume and encourages investors to gamble with credit. This means the game is rigged to create Minsky Moments at regular intervals, roughly every 12-15 months, which wipes out retail investors and concentrates more wealth into fewer hands. 6 A portion of every bitcoin transaction goes into the pockets of the Chinese regime who control most of the hash power in cryptocurrency mining. Retail investors outside China should not be paying a transaction tax to that regime. It is also highly likely that mining company Bitmain and cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance are fronts for fund raising for the Chinese regime, its authoritarian figures, and its electronic warfare departments. 7 Reporters such as the website Bellingcat have shown us wallets belonging to known terrorists, Neo-Nazis and Russian intelligence. Retail investors should not be making these parties wealthier. We should not be financing those who kill and oppress people. 8 All the cryptos put together added two whole countries worth of carbon footprint to the planet in the last decade and rising. We are hitting record temperatures and this level of global warming is a threat to us all. This must not be encouraged. Our legacy financial system is much more energy efficient and improving at a much faster rate. The decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies make them inherently inefficient, slower and power hungry.
Cryptocurrencies have grown exponentially not only in price this past year but also in public awareness and popular attention. The novel feeling to an emerging financial and technological market is reminiscent of the rise of the Internet with its innovative potential. In turn, a heightened collective societal awareness of this new innovative potential has led to a change in the nature of the market dynamics of cryptocurrencies. As Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle posits, “The observation of a phenomenon changes the phenomena itself.” The observation of thousands of young millennials, and now middle-aged investors, will only accelerate the rise of cryptocurrencies as times goes on. Today, we are seeing the real-world effects of a newfound intrigue into cryptocurrencies. This new interest is causing a narrowing of the divergence between truth and fiction over accurate knowledge about cryptocurrencies. The force drawing this gap narrower each day is an increased dissemination of truthful information that has generated legions of individual investors into new cryptocurrency markets; in particular, Ripple’s XRP. As the public expands its understanding of Ripple’s XRP, the capital inflow from both individual and institutional investors combined will likely grow to levels that will exponentially grow the liquidity of XRP and, as a byproduct, its price. Here, in this report, I will provide an overview and analysis of Ripple’s XRP and the implications Q4 2017 and the year 2018 and beyond hold for the future of XRP and its price. THE CONCEPT: WHAT IS XRP? XRP is the digital asset used by Ripple to offer financial institutions an option for liquidity to conduct cross-border payments. It is predominantly used for Ripple’s solution for the minimization of liquidity costs. In contrast to most other cryptocurrencies, XRP’s application here features a real-world applicability that extends to real-world transactions. It is used for the xRapid solution provided by Ripple, and is the only one of the three solutions Ripple offers (The others are xCurrent and xVia) that employs the use of XRP. THE RATIONALE: WHY XRP? There is a myriad of factors that distinguish XRP from other cryptocurrencies and establish it as a forerunner to what may become the dominant cryptocurrencies in the years that lie ahead. Cost: Comparatively, XRP has the lowest cost per transaction at $0.0004. In contrast, BCH is $0.26, LTC is $0.37, DASH is $0.64, ETH is $0.96, and BTC is $28.23. Scalability: XRP can handle over 1,500 transactions per second whereas BCH can handle 24 per second, LTC can handle 56 per second, DASH can handle 10 per second, ETH can handle 16 per second, and BTC can handle 24 per second. Speed: XRP can conduct transactions at a rate of 3 seconds per transaction, BCH at a rate of 58 minutes per transaction, LTC at 17 minutes per transaction, DASH at 15 minutes per transaction, ETH at 2 minutes per transaction, and BTC 1 hour and 6 minutes per transaction. XRP’s availability is ever-expanding. It is currently available on over 50 exchanges including Bitstamp, Bithumb, Bittrex, Binance, Bitfinex, Kraken, and Poloniex. The volume of XRP availability is, in addition, in an expansionary phase. The primary location of exchange volume is concentrated in Asia; in particular, South Korea. However, as mainstream media attention increases, so will American interest as well. There already have been tell-tale signs indicative in news outlets that have covered Ripple recently in the wake of XRP’s rise in CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes, Investopedia, and Yahoo Finance. Simply consider the mania generated by the media attention to Bitcoin. Repetitive news stories featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, CBS, and other mainstream media news outlets. Countless articles disparaging it as a bubble and hailing it as a force that could deconstruct the financial apparatus governed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Now, consider the results of media attention directed towards the substantive information behind XRP. Once news segments and articles are shown and written that illustrate the comparative superiority of XRP to other cryptocurrencies, then the viewers and readers will likely flock to XRP in pursuit of acquiring a tried, tested, and proven cryptocurrency with real-world usage. In turn, a virtuous circle intensifying capital inflow to XRP is predictable and probably to occur. We can expect FOMO to rise and a number of oscillations up and down for the price to unfold. Nevertheless, the price of XRP is bound to not only remain but rather accelerate its demonstrated upwards price trajectory pushing us to new heights. Additionally, if the collective fear among cryptocurrency investors materializes, that is, if new regulations are imposed on our activities, then Ripple is stand to likely gain. Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a scholar and risk analyst writes about a concept called “Antifragility.” Antifragility is a term used to describe things that gain from disorder. Considering Ripple’s ties to financial institutions and regulators, it wouldn’t be too far-off to speculate that XRP is positioned to gain if such a black swan event were to occur. FURTHER REASONS TO ADVANCE THE CASE FOR XRP: Financial institutions, renown investors, and accomplished financiers have already taken notice of XRP. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has advocated on Ripple’s behalf. Zoe Cruz, former president for institutional securities and wealth management at Morgan Stanley and former global head of fixed income, commodities, and foreign exchange has joined Ripple’s Board of Directors. She has been named to Forbes list of Most Powerful Women for three years straight. Perhaps most notably, a consortium of 61 banks – organized by SBI Ripple Asia – will be adopting Ripple’s technology to settle transactions between its members with the eventual goal of applying XRP to usage. Mr. Yoshitaka Kitao, the CEO, Executive Chairman, and President has publicly stated, “Forget about bitcoin, we’re all in on XRP!” In fact, SBI has already confirmed that XRP will be put in usage in Spring 2018. If successful, expect the price to reflect it. Moreover, TechCrunch Founder Michael Arrington has, as of November 2017, announced a $100 million XRP hedge fund. His efforts have already raised $50 million which will engender a ripple effect of new large net-worth individual and institutional investors. The entity will be called Arrington XRP Capital and new information about its activities are set to be released in the months that lie ahead. Also, David Schwartz, Ripple’s Chief Cryptographer, has said that there are two major “household” companies (Not financial institutions) that will be announced in Q4. This is likely to provide a substantial boon to XRP. Finally, the Chief Technology Officer of Ripple, Stefan Thomas, has said that in 2018 there will be a “big push on XRP.” For years, Ripple has kept a relative silence in expressing the superiority of XRP. 2018 will be different. 2018 is bound to be Ripple’s year. I expect the price to rise as high as $10 and as low as $4. At any rate, this report only scratches the surface of Ripple and XRP’s potential. For far more nuanced and in-depth analysis and information, I suggest reading from Ripple firsthand at www.ripple.com and perusing the best blog on XRP itself at https://xrphodor.wordpress.com/ To the moon, we go. SOURCE: https://cellardoorway.com/2017/12/24/the-case-for-ripples-xrp-a-brief-overview/
Attacking IOTA on a scientific level ended with self inflicted academic fraud (allegedly), exposing bad actors and destroyed reputations, while educating the IOTA community about the protocol itself. If the media didn't spin the DCI/IOTA incident, it would have been an absolute PR bloodbath for DCI. The new angle is: hurt the IF by making it look like a toxic environment for developers. That's why month old screenshots are being digged out. This is FUD with surgical precision because developers engaging with the IOTA protocol is one of the more underrated but really fucking important factors. Thanks to the first steps in making the IF more transparent however, we now know over that 1300+ developers/creators are part of the Ecosystem. https://ecosystem.iota.org
Yes, you should boycott Coindesk. No, it's not childish. You should generally avoid all bad press as it's a waste of time.
If the first newspaper you’ve read was on an iPad you might not know this: Serious newspapers label articles, in which the writer states his/her opinion on the topic he/she is reporting on, AS SUCH. Those are often referred to as “Opinion Pieces” or a “Comment”. However...
Most crypto news sites are simply a vehicle to push undisclosed native advertisement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_advertising [Native advertising is a type of advertising, mostly online, that matches the form and function of the platform upon which it appears.] ... [a clear disclosure is deemed necessary when employing native marketing strategy in order to protect the consumer from being deceived] ... [According to Federal Trade Commission, means of disclosure include visual cues, labels, and other techniques.]
If a news outlet is NOT even labeling opinion pieces as such - it’s not worth your time. It will add more confusion than clarity. Because that’s what it’s designed to do. Let's see if we can spot the difference between professional and fraud:
see how finder.com.au is very clear about everything? Opinion and disclosure? TNW not so much... ok, let's never talk about this again! Let's finally move on.
We should stay healthy skeptics towards corporate adoption. Friendly reminder the IF exists mainly to push back on corporate agendas. For all we know, some just do it for the extra likes on twitter because of a #IOTA hashtag. Rarely do corporate SM accounts enjoy this kind of attention. If you think i'm being anti-corporate libtardish, consider this: Industry 4.0 needs IOTA more than IOTA needs them.https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehnestatus/989738856298659841 Not only to stay competitive but also to not get hacked and shut down by “insert country”. Bosch, Fujitsu and DXC are maybe the first to realize this. SO PLEASE stop begging on social media and tweeting at Elon Musk about IOTA. It’s not a good look.
that being said: Institutional money and regulation is the hot topic right now. And most likely will be during 2018. BTC Futures showed a recent spike in Volume hinting at smart money flowing in: https://twitter.com/CryptoKinky/status/989569263383011328 (dont judge me for my resources i cant afford nice looking charts) There are several news articles about WS traders moving to crypto and so on. Looks like things are starting to get rolling in the institutional world, as infrastructure is being set up. Contrary to popular tinfoilery belief (aka. "The Cartel" Medium Article, that all of Bitcoin is 100% manipulated already based on future contracts), futures had relatively small volume compared to the global btc volume - most likely not important enough to justify manipulation of the entire market. https://bitcoinaverage.com/en/bitcoin-price/btc-to-usd (global volume)
Even the SEC Chairman Jay Clayton stated that futures market is "quite small" in his public statement before the february hearing: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/opagiancarlo37 It is important to put the new Bitcoin futures market in perspective. It is quite small with open interest at the CME of 6,695 bitcoin14 and at Cboe Futures Exchange (Cboe) of 5,569 bitcoin (as of Feb. 2, 2018). At a price of approximately $7,700 per Bitcoin,15 this represents a notional amount of about $94 million.
If you believe in a paradigm shift, this means we are still early.
Recent regulatory voices and twitter drama led to this piece by https://coincenter.org/entry/no-ether-is-not-a-security Why is this important? Companies in the US most likely are patient about making an investment into any crypto token as there is regulatory uncertainty. DXC TECHNOLOGY COMPANY, showcased a PoC with IOTA. At Q4 in december, DXC has stated: 213 Million in Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities.https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1688568/000168856818000007/dxc1231201710-q.htm Just some food for thought: If you are already spending opportunity cost on IOTA, why wouldn't you leverage that with the token. Bosch invested into the token as well, most likely because there is more regulatory certainty in germany. Fujitsu wants to roll out IOTA as an industry standard (as it seems). This is not your regular Shitcoin. There is a reason dumb money is called dumb. Last time i check Verge had 10x the volume on binance compared to IOTA.
There are no fundamentals yet in evaluation, it’s purely speculative - but with more institutions moving into the space this might change. As such, CCs with industrial use could likely see a reevaluation. But, looking in from the outside, there seem to be some hurdles. this twitter account is one of the more resourceful ones, he lets out some numbers to boost his SM traction (god bless him) https://twitter.com/joel_john95 as outsiders, this will be an extremely helpful resource. He tweeted out a quarterly report https://medium.com/outlier-ventures-io/state-of-blockchains-q1-2018-1efe284572c1 he writes: Over $1.8 billion has been invested into firms working with the blockchain ecosystem through corporate venture capital to date. That’s not that much. Is it. For the entire ecosystem? Friendly reminder snapchat, after a 20% fall, is a 15 billion company. Just to get some perspective.
Especially if you consider the crypto market is still in the hands of leveraged daytraders on bitmex and whales, who got big stacks in a coin early on. Imagine you want to invest 3M into IOTA as a CVC, you would’t spin up Binance and hit marketorder. You contact the IF and see if you can buy some, or outlier ventures might want to part with some, or even the founders i imagine hold quite a substantial amount. I often see people asking for more exchanges - that's kinda missing the point. What you want at this point is more institutional interest. That's the kind of demand we want. Thats what you would call "organic growth" i guess. Ripple holders, thinking a coinbase listening would make XRP go to $10, fail understand that Ripple itself holds a substantial amount of tokens where VCs can go and buy in bulk. And that’s why XRP is such a Shitcoin in the first place.
Ripple and XLM look extremely bad with over 90% of coins held in the top 100 addresses (shitcoins confirmed). TRX and EOS don’t even have a mainnet yet to really track it - so you can imagine the numbers are likely shit too. ADA is looking way better than IOTA in terms of wealth distribution. But 60% for whales, IF and Founders is probably better than what most projects can show for. Thing is, the small guys got in on crypto first. Not the banks, not a selected silicon valley investor boisclub either. While this is good for us, it's a nightmare for investment banks and such. JPMorgan admitted that in their “BTC Bible” saying: Ownership is highly concentrated. The opportunity set around direct CC trading appears relatively limited for banks (Think about that for a second.) CVC investing into the token could be, in my speculative opinion, the most likely catalyst for the price of IOTA, as its industrial adoption can build a synergy for entire sectors. As the main argument for Bitcoin is price uncorrelation to legacy assets, IOTA might be an interesting pick for the smart money, as it could be one of the few CCs with actual fundamental impact on different industry sectors. Something Blockchain, after 10 years, has failed to do. Let me summarize because i was a bit all over the place. Things i will look for going forward:
Institutional infrastructure is being built as we speak as regulations get more clear
2018 might see the highest investments into the blockchain ecosphere
Financial talent from legacy market is switching to crypto
Retail investors are the early adopters, not exclusive silicon valley boiclubs
Liquidity is really bad, its hard to buy a lot of crypto for institutions
The real FOMO and bubble might come with the “smart” money
IF addressing wealth distribution and being more transparent
(i do not have a finance background as you can see and i write these to offer some interesting links and resources you might find useful in your own research.)
Analysis shows that XRP has much higher wealth concentration than both Bitcoin and Ethereum.Nevertheless, such concentration poses risks for all three coins. Here’s why. Wealth concentration by the numbers. In August, blockchain analytics firm Coin Metrics released data around different coins and their wealth concentrations. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao has apologized for causing concern among the crypto community when he openly spoke about the possibility of a rollback for the Bitcoin blockchain following confirmation of a hack leading to the theft of USD 40 million worth of bitcoins on its platform.. The rollback had caused a sharp backlash, particularly among Bitcoin-only communities, aghast at the very concept ... “Bitcoin is meaningfully decentralized in terms of miner and exchange concentration, and its supply is increasingly evenly-dispersed,” it concluded. Coin Metrics analyzed the Bitcoin blockchain across three main metrics: wealth distribution, the distribution of hash power and the market share of exchanges. Yesterday saw what was gearing up to be an interesting debate on whether Bitcoin has a problem with wealth inequality. Stemming from a statistic provided by Civic CEO, Vinny Lingham, that 2% of wallet addresses hold 80% of BTC, it was countered by Interchange co-founder, Dan Held, and hosted by former Coinbase engineer, Preethi Kasireddy. Top 100 Richest Bitcoin Addresses. Bitcoin distribution. First Input, Last Input, Number Of Inputs, First Output, Last Output, Number Of Outputs, Balance It’s pretty obvious how this leads to wealth concentration. The fact that mining itself is centralized is a whole other (related) issue. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum mining are controlled by very few entities, with the top four miners in Bitcoin and the top three miners in Ethereum receiving more than 50 percent of network mining rewards. The ... Binance Academy defines staking as: ... randomization, and the node’s wealth.” Fundamentally, “minting” a block in a Proof of Stake algorithm can be compared to “mining” a block in Proof of Work systems. To become eligible for minting blocks and consequently reaping block rewards, validators must stake cryptoassets on-chain. Depending on the chain details, these staked cryptoassets ... Source: Bitinfocharts.com. The usual way to calculate the distribution is to say that 1% of 19,562,222 Bitcoin addresses is 195,622 addresses and, looking at the table, the 195,622'th wealthiest ... Binance users can now buy Bitcoin with practically all of the fiat currencies in existence; Binance, which is one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, has partnered with the peer-to-peer crypto exchange Paxful. Via this partnership, Binance users can now use 167 different fiat currencies to buy Bitcoin. Distribution of wealth in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Wealth control often mirrors power control. Until now, the distribution of wealth has been challenging to track. People often hide their wealth or the actual amount of assets they own. Cryptocurrencies have made a big leap in the transparency of wealth distribution. This is an entirely new class of assets that allows you to ...
Bitcoin (BTC) 2018 price prediction - The new store of wealth
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